MLB: Philadelphia Phillies - Baltimore Orioles

Andre | 24th Jul. 2023 | Sport: Baseball

Philadelphia Phillies vs: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles

For the coming night I present you with another MLB tip, but there is not much to choose from at the moment. This is not to say that I am "chasing" any tips, but rather that there is not much variety at the moment. I have been a baseball fan for a long time, but I really became a fan in 2016 when the Chicago Cubs beat the Cleveland Indians 8-7 in the final game. Today I watched the Phillies take on the Orioles, a clash between two teams that are in very different places right now. Philadelphia made it to the finals last year and are having a much harder time than expected this year. Baltimore, on the other hand, have outperformed expectations by 200% and have an impressive 61-38 record with the second-lowest payroll.

Philadelphia has a very good offense, while their starting rotation has some weaknesses. This is also one of the main reasons why I will be recommending the 'Over' today. Philadelphia has a handful of absolute superstars who were in the final last year. JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Alec Bohm to name but a few, plus Trea Turner from the Dodgers in the off-season. The Phillies currently have a batting average (the percentage of times a team gets on base) of 25.6%, which is 9th in the league. There are always nine batters in a baseball game, who are also numbered from 1 to 9. Usually the best players hit 1, 2 and 3, and so on. Philadelphia, unlike other teams, has very good lineups from player 1 to 9.

What makes the Orioles so strong this year?
The Orioles have a fundamentally sound team with no one big star standing out. Santander has the highest number of home runs with 16, the Phillies have Schwarber with 26. Baltimore have scored 488 runs this season, good for 9th in the league. In Baltimore, every player has his part to play and you are not dependent on the performances of individual superstars. I think that they can definitely compete with the Phillies and develop a high quality game. Before the season, nobody would have given the Orioles much of a chance in a relatively tough division, which makes their performance all the more impressive.

My Phillies v Orioles prediction
The spread is currently at 9.5 runs, which I think is very achievable. These two teams already met in March and the games ended with 6, 20, 13 and 17 runs, three out of four games were over the spread. I mentioned in another analysis that baseball is all about the pitchers. The Phillies are starting Sanchez and the Orioles are starting Kremer. Both pitchers are solid, but not elite, and I am not expecting any great performances. Team-internally, Sanchez is number 5 and Kremer is number 3. All I can say is that this is a matchup of two good offenses and the pitchers are not going to be the dominant force you might expect. 10 runs can be reached quickly.

Bet: Over 9,5 Runs

The best odds are with Merkur Bets: 1,9