Online-Gambling: Dutch Authorities expect billions in profits

The Dutch Gambling Supervisory Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) forecasts a clear revenue growth on the online gambling market. According to them, the gross gambling returns should reach the magical mark of one billion as early as 2024. Other countries also expect to see a substantial growth in gambling returns from the online-sector.

Just like the German authorities, the Dutch Gambling Supervisory is also aiming for a possibly high channeling. This means, that a possibly higher percentage of gamblers falls back on licenced and therefore legal gambling providers. To reach this aim, the legal offer must be as attractive as possible. In a recent announcement the Dutch Gambling Authority KSA published the profit forecasts for the coming years.

Dutch Online-Gambling Market: A billion Euro turnover in 2024?

The Dutch Authorities refer to the data of two market research companies in their report. These have tried to forecast the gambling returns for the Dutch Online Gambling Market. According to them, the Experts of H2 Capital expect a total income amounting to 1,08 Billion Euro for 2024. This could mean that for the first time, the magical mark of a billion euro turnover on the Dutch Online-Gambling market would have been reached.

The prognosis of the market research company Regulus Partners is somewhat more cautious. Here the analysts are assuming, that the turnover in 2024 will be around 827 million Euro. Important for the assessment of this prognosis is the fact that both companies have taken the unlicensed providers into consideration. Therefore we are here talking about a turnover forecast for both the licensed and the unlicensed market. Interesting is therefore the so-called channeling, therefore the percentage share of gamblers, who are playing on licensed platforms.

Illegal providers should be suppressed

The Dutch KSA, similar to other regulating bodies, has been fighting illegal Online-providers which operate without a licence, for years. For this reason it is a little surprising, that the suppression of illegal providers was one of the main aims when the gambling regulations in the Netherlands were being planned. The KSA aims to have a channeling of 80 %. Therefore four out of five gamblers should play on legal platforms.

According to the current turnover prognosis, this ambitious aim could be difficult to reach. Since according to the analysts of H2 Capital, the turnover on the legal market could possibly “only” be around 757 million Euro, there remains a substantial balance of more than 250 million Euro, which subsequently would be generated from the Black Market. This proportion would in turn have a consequence, that only a channeling of 70 % would be reached. This would mean that clearly there still would be too many Dutch players gambling on the unlicensed platforms.

Does higher taxation endanger the channeling?

A couple of days ago, we reported about the Criticism of the "Online-Gambling" tax in Germany. A few days ago in Germany there was the suggestion of introducing a so-called gambling tax of 8 %. Normally however the tax is calculated on the gross gambling revenue. It is being feared, that such a tax will endanger the channeling in the legal market, as the legal offer will not be attractive enough anymore.

There are similar fears also in the Netherlands. In the future, there should be a tax of 29 % on the gross gambling revenue. This is clearly more than in other EU-countries. Therefore in the future, more Dutch players could turn to non-licensed providers.

Conclusion

The Dutch Gambling authorities are optimistic about the future of the national online gambling market. According to the market research company H2 Capital, the gambling turnover in the online-sector could reach over a billion euro for the first time in 2024. The decision makers are however currently worried about the channeling, with which the self-defined aim could fail, under certain circumstances. Actually the KSA is aiming for a channeling of 80 %. According to current prognosis, fewer player will make use of the legal providers in the future. Similar to Germany, the planned increase in taxes on online gambling could be the reason for this. We are therefore excited to see how the channeling will develop in the coming months and years.

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