Netherlands: impressive canalisation rate of at least 87 percent

One of the declared main objectives of any gambling licence system is to encourage as many users as possible to use precisely those casinos, betting providers, lotteries, etc. that are licensed in the respective country. The so-called channelling rate, which shows how high this proportion is, is therefore one of the most important indicators of the success or failure of a regulatory project. This is also the case in the Netherlands, where new figures have recently been published showing that more than a respectable 87 per cent of players gamble legally.

Things look a little different for our neighbours, the Dutch: There, it seems to have been clear for some time that the opening of the market to private gaming companies has been a real success. As we already mentioned in our article on a possible complete ban on gambling advertising and slots in Holland, the regulatory authority Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) assumes that the country has a canalisation rate of 90 percent or more.

A recent Dutch study, which looked at player visits to legal and illegal sites, even came up with a channelling rate of 95 percent. Data on expenditure and revenue from another study, on the other hand, indicate that the rate is 87 per cent. In any case, the primary goal of 80 per cent use of legal offerings, which was set in 2021 as part of the new regulation, has clearly been achieved. The KSA figures also reveal some other interesting facts about the Dutch market.

Different analyses yield different channelling rates: However, the trend seems positive

In October 2024, the KSA published two new reports analysing player behaviour and turnover trends in the Dutch gambling sector. Interestingly, different methods lead to different assessments of the channelling rate - one of the most important key figures for assessing the success of gambling regulations.

1. The first survey, conducted by market research company GfK, estimates channelisation at an impressive 95%. This figure is based on the analysis of player visits and shows that almost all users accessed legal gambling sites exclusively in the first half of 2024. This suggests that the majority of players stick to the legal infrastructure, which speaks in favour of its attractiveness and accessibility.
2. However, a second approach, based on data from H2 Capital, looks not only at visits, but also at revenue and expenditure on both legal and illegal gambling sites. Here, the channelling rate drops to 87 percent. The reason for this difference is that higher sums are often wagered on illegal platforms, according to the assumption. Players who opt for unregulated providers tend to spend more money, as there are often less strict rules on such platforms. This enables higher winnings, but also greater losses.

In any case, the appeal of using illegal gambling providers is not insignificant: more choice, anonymity, higher potential winnings or simply the supposed freedom from legal restrictions are strong attractions for some players. At the same time, however, it is clear that a well-regulated, transparent and attractive legal gambling infrastructure - as is obviously the case in the Netherlands - nevertheless channels many of these people into the legal environment.

Interesting market distribution: the Dutch like to gamble locally

Together with an analysis of the success of channelling, the Market Scan 2024 provides a comprehensive overview of the characteristics of the Dutch gaming sector. This reveals an interesting distribution.

• Online vs. offline: While online offerings have grown strongly in recent years, land-based gambling remains a dominant factor. The total revenue of land-based casinos accounts for 61 per cent of all revenue. Online casinos account for around 27.25 per cent or 1.09 billion euros. Despite the growth of online casinos by an impressive 34 per cent (311 million euros) compared to the previous year, land-based gambling also grew, albeit more moderately with an increase of 19 per cent (250 million euros).
• Stake volume: In terms of per capita expenditure, the report, using data from H2 Capital, shows that Dutch adults spend an average of 272 euros on gambling. This is below the EU average of €339. The Netherlands is just ahead of Ireland, but behind Finland, France and Denmark. The total gross gaming revenue for 2024 already shows a positive trend. For the first half of 2024, EUR 752 million was achieved, which corresponds to an increase of 8 per cent compared to the second half of 2023. This development underlines the continued growth in momentum in both the online and land-based segments.
• Sports betting: Another noteworthy detail is that sports betting, although it only accounts for a small part of overall gambling competition in the Netherlands, has grown strongly since liberalisation in 2021. Its share of the overall market is only 9 per cent - and when looking at online revenues, it even drops to 7 per cent. Despite this small contribution, sports betting recorded revenue growth of 9.7 per cent in 2023, which corresponds to a total of 349 million euros. The online sector clearly dominates, with 83 per cent of total revenue coming from the digital space, while land-based sports betting only contributed 17 per cent. This is probably due to the fact that local betting shops can only be operated by two monopoly providers, Zeturf and TOTO Winkel.
• Lotto : Similar to Germany, where well over 100 new lottery millionaires are made every year, lotteries continue to account for a significant share of the gambling market in the Netherlands. In 2023, it accounted for 30 per cent, although this represents a slight decline from the previous year's 34 per cent. Here too, the market is controlled by a monopoly, with only land-based lottery offerings.

This data shows that despite the growing popularity of online gambling, the Dutch are still strongly committed to traditional local offerings. This creates a unique balance that shows particularly great opportunities for growth in the online sector, but also the continued importance of physical gambling.

Conclusion

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