Hitting the lottery jackpot with certainty - is that possible?

If you want to hit the lottery jackpot, you need a lot of luck. The chance of correctly picking six numbers plus a super number is around 1:140 million. But from a purely mathematical point of view, is it possible to hit the lottery jackpot with certainty if a corresponding number of picks are made?

According to a survey by IfD Allensbach, around seven million people in Germany alone regularly play the lottery. According to the survey, a further 21 million Germans play the lottery at least occasionally. At GambleJoe, we already reported in summer 2021 that the lottery boom in Germany is continuing. Most recently, a Lotto jackpot winner from North Rhine-Westphalia in prize class 2 won almost €2.3 million in the draw on Saturday, January 4. But how high is the Lotto jackpot today and can the jackpot be won with certainty if only enough picks are placed?

Mathematical won 14 times in the lottery - coincidence or strategy?

In the middle of last year, the story of a mathematician who had moved to Australia with his family went around the world. Over the course of several years, the man won the lottery twelve times in the 1980s alone. He had previously noticed that the jackpot in some lotteries was higher than the number of possible number combinations. That's why he simply played all the possible number combinations. As he only took part in lotteries where it costs less to bet every possible number combination than the possible win amount, he could only win. He was financed by investors.

Nevertheless, simply betting on all possible number combinations is certainly not one of the most effective lottery jackpot tips. In the meantime, lottery companies have adapted their betting systems accordingly, not only in Australia but also in other countries around the world. Today, the probability of hitting the jackpot in Lotto 6 out of 49 for six correct numbers plus a super number is exactly 1 : 139 838 160, with 15% of the bets being allocated to this prize category (at least one million euros). In the German lottery system, the jackpot is of course never higher than the bet for all possible combinations.

But what are the odds of picking 3, 4, 5 or 6 winning numbers correctly?

Almost exactly one year ago on January 1, 2024, we at GambleJoe reported that a player only collected his lottery prize of €100,000 after around three years.

Hitting the lottery jackpot with a guarantee - is that possible?

Statistically speaking, a player would have to place 140 million picks to win the jackpot with "certainty". If you take into account that a pick in the Lotto 6 out of 49 currently costs €1.20, this would correspond to expenditure of €168 million. However, the last Lotto jackpot today (January 8, 2025) was only €5 million - a clear loss.

Even the highest German Lotto jackpot of all time, which was won by a person from Bavaria on January 3, 2024, was "only" €48.6 million. So even here, the winner would have made a loss if he had placed 140 million picks beforehand.

Source of the image: https://pixabay.com/de/photos/lotto-lottoschein-schein-gewinn-484801/