The Addiction Yearbook is published by the German Centre for Addiction (DHS). It summarises statistics on the use of gambling in Germany and other circumstances or activities with similar risk potential. It has now come to light that key information on sports betting in the yearbook appears to have been partly taken from an illegal information site on the internet. How could this happen?

We recently reported on the decline in gross gaming revenue and gambling participants, as presented in the Addiction 2023 yearbook. From the outset, there were difficulties with the figures on sports betting usage. Initially, there was talk of the sports betting market growing by more than 400 per cent.

The German Sports Betting Association (DSWV) intervened and corrected the figures. The turnover of €18.3 billion in 2021 used as the basis for market growth was simply wrong. According to the DSWV, it could have been based on an incorrect data base or a calculation error. In fact, the stakes in 2021 would have amounted to a (still very respectable) €9.4 billion.

Now, however, the revised version of the Yearbook uses the same disproved figure of 18 billion. The DSWV then investigated: It turned out that the head of the "Health & Society" department at the Institute for Public Health and Nursing Research at the University of Bremen had based his calculations on data from an internet site that provides information and advertising for illegal bookmakers.

DSWV uncovers questionable sources

According to the DSWV, the calculation of the annual turnover for sports betting in the Yearbook Addiction 2023 is based on the respective gross gaming revenue and a certain payout ratio. The problem lies in the payout ratio. According to the DSWV, this is the result of a comparison whose sources are hardly suitable for a scientific compilation.

Apparently, the person responsible at the University of Bremen simply used Google to find out how to determine the payout ratio. He came across a site that clearly advertised betting companies that are illegal in Germany: This was the result of a more detailed investigation by the DSWV. This and the other sites were not mentioned as sources in the yearbook itself, but only in the correction note on the DHS website.

Page without imprint and "Heinz" provide data

Firstly, only three sites are given as sources for the payout ratio comparison. This would be less critical if these were reliable institutions providing clearly substantiated figures.

However, this is not the case. According to the DSWV, at least one of the sites has no imprint or author information. The audit revealed that the sites also advertise gambling which is illegal in Germany. None of the betting providers named by the operator had a licence according to GlüStV 2021. In addition, false information was given about the legality of bookmakers licensed in Curaçao.

The other two pages name at least one author. However, this author would only be given the name "Heinz". The imprint indicates a company in Austria, and the bookmakers listed are at least legal. However, these are also heavily advertised sites whose information cannot be verified.

Meaningful data would be so easily available

The DSWV clearly criticises the approach of the DHS and the person responsible for the calculation in question at the Bremen Institute for Public Health and Nursing Research. It points to a reliable source: The Federal Ministry of Finance publishes monthly tax revenues, which would provide a suitable basis for calculation.

The first revision of the DSWV, which we also briefly discussed in our last report, is also based on this information. According to this, sales in 2021 would have been around €9bn and not €18bn, representing growth of around 21% instead of more than 400%.

Fazit

With this turnover calculation and the insistence on the 18 billion euros, the DHS has really got itself into hot water. Unfortunately, the very lax approach to data collection here casts a bad light on the whole yearbook. Of course, you have to wonder if they were just googling somewhere else and not taking a closer look.

Using a website that promotes illegal bookmakers as a source is, of course, an absolute no-go. After all, the "Heinz" pages appear to be legitimate and may have a real added value character. Nevertheless, even such sources should not be used for a scientific, publicly important and possibly legally relevant paper.

Imager source: https://www.pexels.com/de-de/foto/schreiender-formeller-mann-der-nachrichten-auf-laptop-beobachtet-3760778/

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