Far-reaching debate about football manipulation in Brazil

Brazil is undoubtedly one of the biggest football nations in the world, but it also repeatedly has massive problems with match-fixing and betting manipulation. There is currently a veritable wave of discussion on the subject, which is drawing wide circles and causing a particular stir in view of the imminent introduction of the national sports betting market. Is the problem really as serious as feared or is it being artificially hyped up?

Back in April 2023, we reported on the fact that manipulation and betting fraud are commonplace in Brazil's football leagues. There are still regular reports of twisted matches and similar unfair or criminal activities. There are two central problems that provide numerous potentially lucrative targets for fraudsters:

1. Firstly, there are a great many leagues at national level in the country due to the enormous enthusiasm for football, which means that a large number of important matches are played.
2. Secondly, the players in almost all associations are paid quite poorly - more than half of the registered professionals only earn the minimum wage of the equivalent of 230 euros per month.

The current furore over possible match-fixing is mainly the result of accusations from the owner of the club Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas from Rio de Janeiro. The timing seems anything but favourable. After all, the national sports betting market is soon to be introduced. What's more, Brazil is not doing particularly well internationally when it comes to betting manipulation. Experts and the press fear long-term difficulties.

Wide-ranging debate: from Botafogo to politics to the Supreme Court of Sports and beyond

The current wave of discussion was triggered by the fact that the American businessman John Textor, owner of Botafogo FR, levelled accusations of match-fixing against São Paulo professionals. Textor claimed that he had evidence that bribery had taken place in a match against Palmeiras, which was lost 5-0. He also announced that he was in possession of a recording showing a referee being bribed.

Textor's accusations triggered reactions of indignation and anger. Senator Jorge Kajuru called on the federal police to summon the football boss within 24 hours and demanded his arrest if his evidence was insufficient.

A parliamentary commission of enquiry into sports betting was set up to investigate the allegations. After Textor repeated his claims, Palmeiras president Leila Pereira said that the Botafogo owner should be expelled from Brazil altogether if the allegations were not proven.

A real dispute that is not only inconvenient with regard to the sports betting market that is about to start. What's more, Brazil is ranked third in the International Betting Integrity Association's (IBIA) 2023 Integrity Report with 11 reports of suspicious sports betting, all of which relate to football.

Will the sports betting market in Brazil be permanently weakened by the allegations?

According to a recent IBIA study, sports betting turnover in Brazil could reach a whopping 34 billion US dollars by 2028 - with a gross profit of 2.8 billion dollars. According to the same study, the state would already collect a whopping 2.3 billion dollars in taxes in the first year of national regulation, i.e. in 2025. These are undoubtedly very promising prospects - both for the sports betting industry and for the country. However, with the current controversy, things could be in jeopardy.

Rafael Marchetti Marcondes, head of the Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR), told the international trade press that the incidents could damage the general health of the market and is therefore calling for immediate action. The manipulation of results, if not effectively combated, would lead to the discrediting of Brazilian sport in the medium and long term.

Is the situation really that critical and what solutions are there?

Despite all the negative headlines, it must be noted that Brazil is not the only country with match-fixing problems. In the IBIA's 2023 Integrity Report, the United Kingdom is in fact the clear leader with 31 suspected cases. The Czech Republic ranks second with 18 reports, a full seven ahead of the South American football giant.

For the critics, it is clear that the lack of attention paid to preventing manipulation has led to the current problems. But this should change.

1. Sportradar, one of the world's leading sports and sports betting analysts based in Switzerland, plays an important role here. Among other things, the betting monitoring service keeps an eye on the two highest Brazilian divisions in men's and women's football as well as the Copa do Brasil tournament. Incidentally, Sportradar found no anomalies when analysing the match, which according to Textor was manipulated.
2. Furthermore, the widely demanded clarification of the current incidents is already underway. In June, the sports data specialists at Genius Sports launched an initiative with Botafogo, the team at the centre of the current controversy, to inform the professionals about the relevant risks.
3. The future regulatory authority also has a role to play: Firstly, according to experts, sufficient funds would have to be made available to invest in technologies that would enable manipulation cases to be combated more efficiently. On the other hand, the necessary personnel and the appropriate qualifications need to be put together.

Conclusion

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