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Sport betting tips: Sports betting tips 2024 (Page 76)

Topic created on 01st Jan. 2024 | Page: 76 of 398 | Answers: 5,967 | Views: 262,252
MisterL
Expert

Sports betting tips 2024

12th Mar. 2024, at 06:35 pm CET#1126
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5euro free bet at tipico

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Butterbrezel
Elite

Sports betting tips 2024

12th Mar. 2024, at 07:24 pm CET#1127
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Stromberg wrote on 12.03.2024 at 13:22:

I also think... 😄


I would be interested in your opinion on combination betting.

Let's assume I'm playing a 4-way combination, just as an example, with odds of 13.00,
4 odds of 1.9 each.

Now the bookie still has its margin in each odds, i.e. the fair odds for the probability calculated by the bookie would actually be 2.0 and the total odds 16.00.

This should now also be the probability assumed by the bookie that the ticket will hit, i.e. 1 in 16.

In terms of other things, this is a value where you would not expect the event to happen.

When you place your betting slip, you have already thought about it, but you assume that it could well happen (at least that's how I feel).
At least you think it's much more likely than drawing one of 16 balls, for example. 😄

Long story short, here's my question:

What do you guys think what probability can actually be achieved by making the right bet selection through research etc.... . By practically taking 4 value bets in the ticket, whose probabilities you estimate to be higher than the bookie.

(In the end, of course, this cannot be said across the board, because it is often also subjective perception and assessment of circumstances as to whether a bet has value or how likely it is).

But would you say an actual probability of 1 in 10 is possible?
Or do you consider the probability that you are actually offered (1 in 13 in my example) to be the maximum because you can perhaps only make up the bookie's margin?

I'd be interested to know, I hope it's clear what I mean...

( other factors that influence the betting odds, especially the betting market itself, i.e. what is being bet on by the players, I leave out of my example, even if this can of course bring value to a bet)







Interesting topic.

From a purely technical point of view, you can of course achieve a higher chance than the pure mathematical chance if you assess the game correctly.
That is, if the bookmaker's assessment is not correct, as in your example with odds of 1.9 (fair 2.0).

However, since this is also only an assessment, I believe that the probability in your example is always
1 in 16 -> and thus in the long term with an advantage for the bookmaker.
The best research and assessment does not replace the gambling factor, because you don't know in advance what the players will do on the field.

I take up the "goat dilemma" on the subject of "probability".

The basic question of the goat dilemma is the game show "Go all in".

You are a contestant and have 3 goals to choose from. In 2 is the Zonk (or a goat in the English format), in 1 is a new car.

You freely choose a gate (in our example gate 1, but it doesn't matter which number).
The showmaster, who knows behind which gate the goats and the car are located, opens gate 3 (in our example) - a goat. You are happy, the chances of winning a car have obviously increased.
He now offers you the chance to reconsider your decision and switch from gate 1 to gate 2.
Once again: there is a goat in one goal and the new car in the other.

Without googling this topic, if you don't already know it, what mathematical chance of winning do you have if you stay with gate 1 and what chance do you have, under the above circumstances, if you choose gate 2 after all?

Perhaps this idea can somehow be transferred to sports betting (3 selections, as with home win - draw - loss), I just don't know exactly how yet. Maybe we can figure it out together

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B****3

Sports betting tips 2024

12th Mar. 2024, at 07:37 pm CET#1128
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I bet the €50 bonus on a classic win.

100 € on Barcelona, Arsenal and Gladbach win
Makes 338 .

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Langhans_innen
Expert

Sports betting tips 2024

12th Mar. 2024, at 07:43 pm CET#1129
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Butterbrezel wrote on March 12th, 2024 at 7:24 pm:



You are a candidate and have 3 goals to choose from. In 2 is the Zonk (or in English format a goat), in 1 is a new car.

I didn't become the Zonkhans, but in the end I "only" won DM 2,600 in "Go all out" - even though I was always on goal 3. Mathematically, however, everything was fine for a long time. At some point, the draughtsman waved the hundreds around next to me. I didn't care.... Goal 3 olé olé, but not my buddy in the audience, with whom it was agreed beforehand if one of us got it. He went... steeply . "take money, take money"...audience all screaming and shouting anyway. Took money..was a mistake...Gate 3 was the car PS. I watched the show several times afterwards: dicke Reise was already out, motorcycle gone, Zonk awarded...the car had to be in there, but unfortunately I got confused

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Andre
Expert

Sports betting tips 2024

12th Mar. 2024, at 07:46 pm CET#1130
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Blubbo33 wrote on 12.03.2024 at 19:37: I bet the 50 € bonus classically on victory .

100 € on Barcelona, Arsenal and Gladbach victory
Makes 338 .

The main thing is that the pitch in Saarbrücken plays along


It's raining there again

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Butterbrezel
Elite

Sports betting tips 2024

12th Mar. 2024, at 07:47 pm CET#1131
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Langhans wrote on March 12, 2024 at 7:43 pm:

I didn't become a Zonkhans, but in the end I "only" won 2,600 DM in "Go all out" - although I was always on goal 3. Mathematically, however, everything was fine for a long time. At some point, the draughtsman waved the hundreds around next to me. I didn't care.... Goal 3 olé olé, but not my buddy in the audience, with whom it was agreed beforehand if one of us got it. He went... steeply . "take money, take money"...audience all screaming and shouting anyway. Took money..was a mistake...Gate 3 was the car PS. I watched the show several times afterwards: dicke Reise was already out, motorcycle gone, Zonk awarded...the car had to be in there, but unfortunately I got confused

Yes, I think it's different live than on the sofa. I don't think you make the best decisions live.

I wanted to apply for the 1% quiz on Sat1, because I would have already gambled my way through the examples on the sofa several times. But I'm sure it's completely different live in the studio. Maybe I'll apply anyway

But back to "Go all out".

What chance do you have in the above example?

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T0uchTheSky
Elite

Sports betting tips 2024

12th Mar. 2024, at 07:56 pm CET#1132
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Tonight again a little combo: Tip from Eule with Ali for 1.71 and Porto over 1.5 corners for 1.57, that makes a total Q of 2.68. I mean 2 corners should come out for Porto, right?!

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Langhans_innen
Expert

Sports betting tips 2024

12th Mar. 2024, at 07:58 pm CET#1133
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Butterbrezel wrote on March 12th, 2024 at 7:47 pm:

What chance do you have in the above example?

There are not only the three goals to choose from, but he also mixes in a trip via a player or takes the bundles of hundreds out of his pocket every now and then The latter two parameters are then only used in individual cases and optionally, which is why the whole thing is probably not so easy to express mathematically in probabilities

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B****3

Sports betting tips 2024

12th Mar. 2024, at 08:00 pm CET#1134
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Andre wrote on 12.03.2024 at 19:46:

The main thing is that the place in Saarbrücken plays along


It's raining there again

I haven't checked yet, would be a big disadvantage if the pitch is garbage, but I think at some point the streak is over and the favorite has to prevail.

Gladbach have been warned enough.

Let's see, it's about to start .

But because it was only a 50 bet and 50 bonus on top, you can take a chance.

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Stromberg
Legend

Sports betting tips 2024

12th Mar. 2024, at 08:16 pm CET#1135
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Langhans wrote on 12.03.2024 at 19:43:
I didn't become a Zonkhans, but in the end I "only" won 2,600 DM in "Go all out" - although I was always on goal 3. Mathematically, however, everything was fine for a long time. At some point, the draughtsman waved the hundreds around next to me. I didn't care.... Goal 3 olé olé, but not my buddy in the audience, with whom it was agreed beforehand if one of us got it. He went... steeply . "take money, take money"...audience all screaming and shouting anyway. Took money..was a mistake...Gate 3 was the car PS. I watched the show several times afterwards: dicke Reise was already out, motorcycle gone, Zonk awarded...the car had to be in there, but unfortunately I got confused

That no one has asked the obvious yet... 😱Were you really there? 😂

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Langhans_innen
Expert

Sports betting tips 2024

12th Mar. 2024, at 08:30 pm CET#1136
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Stromberg wrote on 12.03.2024 at 20:16:

That no one has yet asked the obvious... 😱Were you really there? 😂

I know that Peter8 thinks I'm an untrustworthy blabbermouth Thought it would be different with you You just had to register somewhere, a few weeks later there was a recording date in Munich. You just had to sit in the studio with the other people invited and if you were lucky, you'd get your turn. The chance could be calculated: there were about 200 people (max)...I think he took 5...so 2.5% chance

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Stromberg
Legend

Sports betting tips 2024

12th Mar. 2024, at 08:34 pm CET#1137
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Langhans wrote on 12.03.2024 at 20:30:
I know that Peter8 thinks I'm an untrustworthy blabbermouth Thought it would be different with you You just had to register somewhere, a few weeks later there was a recording date in Munich. You just had to sit in the studio with the other people invited and if you were lucky, you'd get your turn. The chance could be calculated: there were about 200 people (max)...I think he took 5...so 2.5% chance

Cool, I used to watch it from time to time... 😄

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Andre
Expert

Sports betting tips 2024

12th Mar. 2024, at 08:37 pm CET#1138
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I used to watch the show when I was a little boy

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Olli_Eule
Elite

Sports betting tips 2024

12th Mar. 2024, at 10:10 pm CET#1139
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Langhans wrote on 12.03.2024 at 16:27:

maybe include Eule's sheikh game, which has already been mentioned here? https://www.gamblejoe.com/sportwetten-tipps/detail/185/


29 wins in a row for the visitors. Can't give a rating myself...I always steer clear of Asia. It's literally too far away for me

Oh, finally my Tip was right 😀

With al Hilal. It ended 2 to 0 and again with a red card. What kind of machines are these

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Langhans_innen
Expert

Sports betting tips 2024

12th Mar. 2024, at 10:24 pm CET#1140
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Olli_Eule wrote on 12.03.2024 at 22:10:

Oh finally my Tip was right 😀

With al Hilal. It went 2 to 0 and again with a red card . What kind of machines are they?

So...you're a machine too. You just have to believe in yourself a bit more again Unfortunately, although I flinched for a moment, I didn't replay it. It wasn't because I didn't trust your assessment, but because of my general avoidance of Asia, which I mentioned earlier. I need kicks in Europe, otherwise I don't dare

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