Sport betting tips: Sports betting tips 2024 (Page 261)

Stromberg wrote on 08.09.2024 at 11:48: Just bet live on Basketball Thailand Snipers vs Raptors.
Went live at 45 points after the first quarter to under 197.5 (10 minutes of play per quarter, no 12 ).

Snipers haven't finished any of their last 8 games above this line, more like 160 to 170 points...
Raptors 3 of 10 above this line, mostly even mega low scoring 140 points something like that.

I thought the line was way too high... It's also the 2nd game of the final round, no f**king game... First game 150 points total.
And now they score 79 points in the 2nd quarter, most offensive NBA games dream of that in 12 minutes😂... Line is now at 227 points, I've rarely seen that even in Australia or New Zealand at the best of times...

That makes me wonder again, how does the bookie know that? 🤔😂

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frapi07 wrote on 08.09.2024 at 12:03 pm:
The lines of the previous games are not relevant for the odds in live betting, which is logical. The system calculates the odds and the line from the live values. The line in the game was apparently higher than usual.

It's unusual when someone who usually wins with 160 points now wins with 200, but it's just live. It would be like Nuremberg beating someone 6:0 in soccer. It rarely happens, but it can happen.

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Stromberg wrote on 08.09.2024 at 12:19 pm:

Maybe not the lines.

But the results are, of course.
If 2 teams finish their games with an average of 160 points and score 45 points in the first quarter of the current game, then the bookie will normally see this as an upward deviation. The line for total points will then rise, but not to 180 points (extrapolated) but perhaps to 170...and certainly not to 197 points. Normally

Or take soccer as an example. Augsburg scored an average of 4 goals in the last 7 games, St Pauli 2 goals.
If the first goal is scored in minute 15 of the Augsburg game, then the bookie might already go towards over 4.5 for the even odds. (approx. 50/50 over/under)
For St Pauli in the same case at most over 3.5, maybe even only 2.5....

So what I want to say, of course the previous results also play a role in the live odds for the current game.

And even if you were to look at the game completely in isolation, which is nonsense, the logical consequence would be to calculate the 45 points in the first quarter x 4. That would give us a total of 180 points.

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frapi07 wrote on 08.09.2024 at 12:36:
Yes, the results are important, no question. It was just an unusual quarter. 40-45 on average and almost 80 fell in this one

Raptors are going off right now. Almost 40 in the last quarter lol. I looked at the stats, there are 5 players in total that have more than 20 points, one has 28. That's already 100 points just with them. Raptors apparently want to win the second series and are going full throttle or Snipers are taking it easy for the next game, otherwise I can't explain this discrepancy.

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Stromberg wrote on 08.09.2024 at 12:42: Maybe we're talking at cross purposes.
Of course, a game can turn out completely differently than expected and the odds etc. then adjust to the live score, no question.

But if neither previous games, nor the current game, nor other factors (game is unimportant or similar) speak for such a high line, then you can ask yourself the question, how does the bookie come to the conclusion... Be it prematch or live.

So yes, the previous results do not rule out the possibility that the current game will turn out completely differently.
But the previous results normally (also) influence how the bookie sets the odds or limits in the current game.


To put it another way, I'm not surprised that the game is going to end like this (okay, a bit now, 247 points in 4x10 minutes is quite an announcement😂)

It's that the bookie guesses a lot of points without it being statistically obvious...

However, he didn't suspect it in the prematch either, as he would have estimated 173 points...

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frapi07 wrote on 08.09.2024 at 12:49 pm:

I only know from the past that there were always people watching live and then notifying the bookmaker, but I believe that it is now calculated using an algorithm. Unfortunately, I can't tell you why the algorithm expected a high score here. I think they don't just analyze the points, but also something else. I have no idea xD

But yes, through your explanations I also noticed that this game is now out of line and that it seems strange that the bookmaker expected it.

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frapi07 wrote on 08.09.2024 at 12:49 pm:

I only know from the past that there were always people watching live and then notifying the bookmaker, but I believe that it is now calculated using an algorithm. Unfortunately, I can't tell you why the algorithm expected a high score here. I think they don't just analyze the points, but also something else. I have no idea xD

But yes, through your explanations I also noticed that this game is now out of line and that it seems strange that the bookmaker expected it.

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Stromberg wrote on 08.09.2024 at 12:42: Maybe we're talking at cross purposes.
Of course, a game can turn out completely differently than expected and the odds etc. then adjust to the live score, no question.

But if neither previous games, nor the current game, nor other factors (game is unimportant or similar) speak for such a high line, then you can ask yourself the question, how does the bookie come to the conclusion... Be it prematch or live.

So yes, the previous results do not rule out the possibility that the current game will turn out completely differently.
But the previous results normally (also) influence how the bookie sets the odds or limits in the current game.


To put it another way, I'm not surprised that the game is going to end like this (okay, a bit now, 247 points in 4x10 minutes is quite an announcement😂)

It's that the bookie guesses a lot of points without it being statistically obvious...

However, he didn't suspect it in the prematch either, as he would have estimated 173 points...

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Stromberg wrote on 08.09.2024 at 12:53 pm:

216 and 220 points have happened to the Raptors in the last 10 games.

Maybe there was something similar in today's game, be it players or something else, which indicated that it's going in that direction again...

Stromberg wrote on 08.09.2024 at 12:58 pm:

https://web.de/magazine/sport/fussball/altona-93-verweist-datenscout-anlage-40102220


Just happened to read where you mentioned the scouts... 😄

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KennyKenner wrote on 08.09.2024 at 14:58: Tach together

Football Game Day again today 🏈

This also means the start of the Anytime TD Scorer bets again.

I'm betting on today:

Aaron Jones @2.2
Kyle Pitts @ 3.0
Davante Adams @2.5

All single bets and in combination

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2.05

3.25

2.27

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Rainmann wrote on 08.09.2024 at 16:05:

2.05

[Raheem Mostert] Touchdown Scorer
Miami Dolphins - Jacksonville Jaguars

3.25

[Rashid Shaheed] Touchdown Scorer
New Orleans Saints - Carolina Panthers

2.27

[Devin Singletary] Touchdown Scorer
New York Giants - Minnesota Vikings



These are my 3 touchdown scorers tonight

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