Sport betting tips: Sports betting tips 2022 (Page 156)

Wutmaennchen wrote on 21.03.2022 at 17:19
I have a different opinion. Especially in terms of odds, sports betting has the biggest advantage over all other games of chance.

Slot = machine decides, house advantage over 5 % depending on RTP
BlackJack = approx. 2-3 %
Roulette = approx. 1-2
Poker = 5 % rake
Sports betting = in itself no house advantage at all

There is a profit margin for the bookmaker, but this is not to be considered as a house advantage. If you were to play every single odds there is, the bookmaker margin would be the house edge. But you pick the games yourself and you don't play all the hundreds of odds that are offered per game.

And if you play only value odds, you have the Bank advantage in the long run. And you can "influence" the odds yourself.

Example:

You bet on Stuttgart against Augsburg, but expect that both will score a goal. The starting odds are 2.0.
But your value odds are 2.5, so the starting odds are too low -> not value.

So you wait until Augsburg takes the lead, which naturally increases the odds on Stuttgart, e.g. 3.0.
Then you can play the bet and have gained an advantage because the odds (3.0) are higher than the calculated Value (2.5 in this example).
The Risk in this case is that the desired odds will not be reached and you will not play the game and possibly forego the win.

Value and odds comparison is the basis for sports betting when trying to make a long term win.

Of course, you can also just play combos without complicated value calculation, hit and have fun

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Xavi22 wrote on 03/21/2022 at 6:43 pm
I don't know if you meant it that way, but if so, that's probably one of the most common rookie mistakes regarding value calculation.

As an example: you look at the lineups and want to bet on Stuttgart. The 2.0 odds are too low for you. Value you see from 2.5. Augsburg shoots a goal and Stuttgart is at 3 and bet on it, because you have seen value from 2.5.

Many forget that the game situation has changed and it must be completely re-evaluated. Stuttgart must now score at least 2 goals and not concede any in order to win. Is a 3 really worth it then? Some teams play better with a lead, some don't. Some stonewall, some directly concede the second. It's a completely different set of circumstances. I tell you honestly that to get value out of these odds, you should watch the game live.
I do that too rarely, a good example was Hertha against Hoffenheim. Since it has once again worked.
Maybe it makes sense for you with the X-bet to wait for a goal to take the higher quote. But in principle, I would then always recommend a re-evaluation

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SlottiKarotti wrote on 21.03.2022 at 18:32
Sry for the smartass, but to the RTP values I know there other numbers:


Slots: standard 3,5%, rather bad 4%, good slots 3%, Blood suckers has even a 98 RTP
Blackjack: according to basic strategy 0,5% house advantage
european Roulette: 2,7%, american roulette: 5,26%
Poker: At tournaments 10%, at spins I think about 8%, cashgame I think your 5% is about right, on lowstakes more like 6,xx%
Sports betting: Odds key just

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Wutmaennchen wrote on 21/03/2022 at 19:26
No, the example was yes if I had bet that Stuttgart wins and both score.
So the example bet only exists if I assume that both score. If I guess correctly with the assessment "both hit", isses ne 50% chance that I play the bet.

If I would now assume a win by Stuttgart to zero and then after a 0:1 the game, it's n beginner's mistake, exactly.

It depends on what I have assumed BEFORE and what value I have calculated BEFORE.
So the changed game situation I have calculated in my example

But yes, my contribution was bissle tunnel vision, so thank you for the addition. If that read users who have not yet dealt with it, you could really misunderstand my contribution.

But I meant it correctly

Then a simpler example:

Team A against Team B. I bet on Team A. Odds before the game 1,8. But I calculate a value odds of 2,2 and at the same time I realize that Team A scores mostly in the 2nd half and Team B concedes mostly in the 2nd half.
Then I prefer to wait for the HZ result and then place the bet on Team A, if it fits the course of the game.
If I have then reached my 2.2 odds or more, I play the bet.

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Xavi22 wrote on 21/03/2022 at 20:13
All clear👍

Ansich sports betting and Poker are certainly the most profitable.

However, they also have a higher riskio because of it. If you think that you can play profitably, you will continue to reinbuttern in the long run. It can happen that you do not know so well or do not play so well and is not profitable. It is important to recognize this. And then you have to do even more research and co or just leave it

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Wutmaennchen wrote on 21.03.2022 at 20:06: Poker I leave out, I am a miserable Poker player although mathematics is my strength. But poker is like Fifa. Tilt

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