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Sports betting in general: General sports betting thread 2021 (Page 279)

Topic created on 17th Aug. 2019 | Page: 279 of 600 | Answers: 5,996 | Views: 857,510
Xavi22
Expert

General sports betting thread 2021

7th Apr. 2021, at 02:07 pm CEST#2818
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Had actually looked at the Paris ratio based on the same reasoning. However, one can argue whether 3.7 is actually a "value rate"
With Lewandowski, I'm sure Bayern's odds would be around 1.5 and Paris' would be 6.5 or maybe even 7
Accordingly, the game is well odds in my opinion. Even the lower home advantage (no fans) has factored in, in my opinion
Paris knows that Lewandowski will not be there in the second leg either. Therefore, I see no reason for Paris to play completely for victory. Paris would probably take a 1-1 or even a 0-0 with thanks
Therefore, the 3.7 on Paris has absolutely no "value" in my opinion

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u****n

General sports betting thread 2021

7th Apr. 2021, at 02:15 pm CEST#2819
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Xavi22 wrote on 07/04/2021 at 14:07: Had actually looked at the Paris odds based on the same reasoning. However, one can argue whether 3.7 is actually a "value rate"
With Lewandowski I'm sure Bayern's odds would be around 1.5 and Paris would be 6.5 or maybe even 7
Accordingly, the game is well odds in my opinion. Even the lower home advantage (no fans) has factored in, in my opinion
Paris knows that Lewandowski will not be there in the second leg either. I therefore see no reason for Paris to play completely for victory. Paris would probably take a 1-1 or even a 0-0 with thanks
Therefore, the 3.7 on Paris has absolutely no "value" in my opinion.

3.7 converted to probability would be 27.03%. I assume that Paris, however, in Munich, without Lewandowski, would win at least 1 of 3 games. Thus, my personal probability for a Paris win would be 1/3= 33.33%, which for me makes the 3.7 odds overvalued. On a 0-0 Paris would not go, at least an away goal is always damn important

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Xavi22
Expert

General sports betting thread 2021

7th Apr. 2021, at 02:57 pm CEST#2820
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As I said, I agree with you in principle and I also understand the reasoning. But a 3.7 for Paris in Munich in a Champions League game? Lewandowski and Gnabry or not. I think I would have taken anything from 5.0 for Paris here. So it's a clear no-bet for me

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Patizi
Elite

General sports betting thread 2021

7th Apr. 2021, at 04:39 pm CEST#2821
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Are all the midfield and defensive players also out at Bayern? What about Neuer? Is he not playing either? Can Coman, Goretzka, Sane etc. not score goals? To make everything dependent on Lewandowski now I think is wrong! He has in the CL also just 5 hits because at Bayern simply everyone can hit

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Anonym

General sports betting thread 2021

7th Apr. 2021, at 05:17 pm CEST#2822
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Xavi22 wrote on 07.04.2021 at 14:57: As I said, I agree with you in principle and I also understand the reasoning. But a 3.7 for Paris in Munich in a Champions League game? Lewandowski and Gnabry or not. I think I would have taken anything from 5.0 for Paris here. So it's a clear no-bet for me

Of course, in the end, everyone has to decide for himself on what he puts his money or from when he is willing to take the Risk
Therefore, no criticism of you, if you say, for you personally it is so in the form of a clear "no-bet"
Nevertheless, it is already a bet that is to be seen as a "value bet" - a 3.7Q in a Champions League quarter final between Bayern and Paris is strong.
Much higher odds on a team with such a strong squad as Paris has, you get only rarely

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u****n

General sports betting thread 2021

7th Apr. 2021, at 05:22 pm CEST#2823
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Patizi wrote on 07.04.2021 at 16:39: Are all the midfield and defensive players also out at Bayern? What about Neuer? Is he not playing either? Can Coman, Goretzka, Sane etc. not score goals? To make everything dependent on Lewandowski now I think is wrong! He has in the CL also just 5 hits because at Bayern simply everyone can hit.

That has nothing to do with it, Bayern remains the favorite and that PSG wins remains unlikely. The question here is only whether it is 1:1 as unlikely as the bookmaker sees it, or the personal assessment differs from the perception of the bookmaker, so that a value arises. I maintain that it is overvalued at 3.70 and will therefore still fall until kickoff

Basically, nothing else happens in the stock market every day. People look for undervalued stocks that adjust to the actual value over time, and then sell them for a profit

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danny005
Elite

General sports betting thread 2021

7th Apr. 2021, at 05:28 pm CEST#2824
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Win Bayern and win Chelsea for odds 5.5 at Skybet as a super boost is safe.

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Anonym

General sports betting thread 2021

7th Apr. 2021, at 05:33 pm CEST#2825
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Patizi wrote on 07.04.2021 at 16:39: Do all the midfield and defensive players also fall out at Bayern? What about Neuer? Is he not playing either? Can Coman, Goretzka, Sane etc. not score goals? To make everything dependent on Lewandowski now I think is wrong! He has in the CL also just 5 hits because at Bayern simply everyone can hit.

You misunderstand something
"Value Bets" are on the one hand bets where you assume that the rate was set too high and on the other hand it is often bets that are associated with a higher Risk
Bayern remains the favorite in the game, even with the losses of Lewandowski and Gnabry
With such odds, however, you sit down and look at the risk, probability and the "value", the effective benefit and possible win and see whether this can justify the risk

In this case, it is so that I say, the Bavarians are for me the favorite and remain so, despite the failures
Nevertheless, the opponent is and remains Paris, a team with a squad, which on a good day, the Bavarians could well beat.

That was of course the short version

In this case, I see for me so a "value bet", which brings an increased risk but also a certain probability and the corresponding increased benefit and possible win

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Patizi
Elite

General sports betting thread 2021

7th Apr. 2021, at 05:39 pm CEST#2826
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Matthlign wrote on 07/04/2021 at 17:33
You're misunderstanding something
"Value Bets" are on the one hand bets where you assume that the odds were set too high and on the other hand they are often bets that are accompanied by a higher Risk
Bayern remains the favorite in the game, even with the losses of Lewandowski and Gnabry
With such odds, however, you sit down and look at the risk, probability and the "value", the effective benefit and possible win and see whether this can justify the risk

In this case, it is so that I say, the Bavarians are for me the favorite and remain so, despite the failures
Nevertheless, the opponent is and remains Paris, a team with a squad, which on a good day, the Bavarians could well beat.

That was of course the short version

In this case, I see for me so a "value bet", which brings an increased risk but also a certain probability and the corresponding increased benefit and possible win

Yes yes, but for me the odds are too low! I assume quite strongly from a Bayern victory! Wahrscheinlickeitsrechnung is also something that everyone makes for himself. If I see the direct comparisons, in Munich, then you can assume a HC. If I look at what Bayern has done against the 2nd of the league, I see that they have won. Paris, by the way, also played against the 2ten at the weekend and lost! What exactly speaks for Paris now? For me, they would have to have a 5 odds or so. Would rather say the Bayern odds are at Value Bet because that should actually be at 1.50 or so.

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Patizi
Elite

General sports betting thread 2021

7th Apr. 2021, at 05:43 pm CEST#2827
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Oh and btw about on a good day....

On a good day Bayern can also just pour them 3-5 things

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