Sports betting in general: General sports betting thread 2021 (Page 16)

manzan0 wrote on 10/18/2019 4:06 pm
Yeah go ahead, bet house and home on it without losing a syllable without your motives. By the way, Sochaux did not score 1x 3 goals in the 15 away games from 01/01. More often 0-1, few times 2.

This post has been translated automatically

This post has been translated automatically

Tolinski wrote on 18.10.2019 at 16:30
Exactly on such, for this game completely irrelevant stats, the bookies pay attention and therefore give quote 10. That's why you can play sportwetten profitable in the long term.

So guys go with it and thank you properly afterwards.

This post has been translated automatically

This post has been translated automatically

Stromberg wrote on 10/18/2019 at 5:17 pm
Your thought I can understand yes, that you see the probability greater than 1 in 10, and therefore the 10 odds are attractive.
Still, it should be mentioned that it is significantly less likely that the bet will win than that it will lose...
To present it here as a safe Tip is nonsense.

This post has been translated automatically

This post has been translated automatically

Tolinski wrote on 18.10.2019 at 18:08
Well when the dad himself speaks out of course I have to say a few words about the game.



In general, sports betting is always about one thing: value.

Value means that the odds are higher than the actual probability of occurrence. How high the actual probability of occurrence is, everyone must decide for themselves, because everyone has different standards.

For example, if Sochaux had an odds of one million, EVERYONE would say that this odds has value and would bet on it.

Today we are dealing with 10.0 odds for Sochaux over 2.5 goals.

The stats can be read by anyone, France is generally low-scoring, Sochaux is stingy with goals, especially away from home. The bookies see little reason why this game should not be similar to the previous away games of Sochaux.

I see it completely differently.

To the reasons:

Sochaux plays today at Le Chambly. Chambly is an up-and-comer who, as we all know, got off to a furious start in the first few games due to the euphoria and, as we all know, has now come very hard to the bottom of the pile. From the last 4 games there was 1 goal, 9 goals against and 0 points. In the last 8 games only 4 goals were scored (3 in one game).

So the trend is rapidly going downhill, and with Sochaux comes today the completely wrong opponent so that this could change.

Sochaux has a market value twice as high at 16 million, has scored 9 goals in the last 4 games, got 1 GT and scored 9 points.

With Sane is one of the hottest players in Ligue 2 in top form, forms with Livolant and Toure a congenial offensive trio, and then there is the jewel par excellence, Sofiane Diop.



There are no notable absences on either side.


Chambly has to start scoring, they will try to play along and that will play into Sochaux's (already better) cards.

I don't know what the bookies have been drinking, the 3-way odds alone are so ridiculous.

Sochaux win gives a 2.80.

I opt here for the extremely attractive 10.0 odds for 3 goals Sochaux, because a game with 0-1 HT, Chambly opens up, and 1-3 FT I consider very conceivable.


Final cross-comparison: Nancy could give Chambly 3 goals, but went down 3-0 at Sochaux.

Good luck to all who are there.

This post has been translated automatically

Stromberg wrote on 10/18/2019 7:59 PM
You're not really saying anything different than I am. Attractive may be the quote compared to the actual probability. but that does not mean that the result is very likely.

This post has been translated automatically

Tolinski wrote on 10/18/2019 8:01 PM

he????? I just explained long and wide why the result is probable...



do you not read my contribution or do you not understand it?

This post has been translated automatically

Stromberg wrote on 10/18/2019 at 8:21 pm
I was referring to the value thought, not the difference in estimating the probability for this game. What do you think would have been a suitable quote?

What I want to say is: a quote can have value, but that does not necessarily mean that the result is probable. Therefore, under certain circumstances, you should play with a small stake.

This post has been translated automatically