Betting games,... : Raffle final (Page 5)

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Xavi22 wrote on 29.05.2024 at 15:26:
Your reasoning doesn't quite apply though, that's why it's often given 2 points. If you bet on a draw, there are 3 possible outcomes, if you want to be really harsh, 4 possible outcomes. 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 and 3-3. You take one of them, so you have a 25% chance of 4 points. If you bet on the home team, for example, you have 6 realistically possible outcomes with 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2. Ergo only 16.67 percent chance of 4 points. The tendency with 3 points cushions this a little, so that you have a 33 percent chance of the correct tendency if you are right with your tip. In the end, it's actually not entirely fair that you always get 3 points with a draw. The conservative rule in this case is much fairer.

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RedKaos wrote on 31.05.2024 07:00:

In and of itself, you are certainly right that the percentages are different in this case. But I assume that x is also the result that is least likely to occur in percentage terms and that you bet on x for this game and get 3 points for it is probably even lower in percentage terms. That's why I think it's fair that you're guaranteed 3 points if you score.

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Xavi22 wrote on 31.05.2024 07:48:

Can understand that, but with Kicktipp it's not about odds. Otherwise it would actually be unfair that, for example, the bet on the away team (odds 10) also only brings 4 or 3 or 2 points, although the probability is much lower.

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RedKaos wrote on 31.05.2024 08:28:

I don't mean the odds but only the probability. I mean if you take e.g. Leverkusen, they have 28 wins and 6 draws, you bet 34 times on victory for them then you have 56 points for sure due to the 28 wins * 2, if you bet 34 times on x you have 18 points, and so you could do that with any team, there are exceptions like Frankfurt for example.b, but as a rule you won't be successful with x, that's why people don't usually bet on x in such games and if you do pick one and it happens to be right, I think 3 points are justified.

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Xavi22 wrote on 05/31/2024 09:50:
Yes, but again. Kicktipp doesn't differentiate between "how likely is the home win, the draw or the away win". You can see it yourself in the example, if you had bet 34 times on the opposing team of Leverkusen, you would have 0 points and thus significantly less than with permanent draw betting.


To clarify: Kicktipp does not care about the most likely outcome. There are 3 possible outcomes, all of which are rated equally. So 33 percent chance. However, there are fewer different outcomes for a draw than for a home or away win. Hence the difference in the tendency.

By the way, you can take a look at your statistics for the Bundesliga prediction game. I myself have scored 4 points much more often with my draw tips than with tips on home or away wins. And that's the point.

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Andre wrote on 02.06.2024 at 11:01 am:

Exactly right,


Chewi, Butterbrezel and MiPe are tied for 3rd place

The German team's first acid test against Ukraine will take place tomorrow. Please send me a PN when the first goal will be scored. Deadline is tomorrow at 8 pm. I'll post the respective minutes here so that you can join in the excitement.

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