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Betting games,... : Raffle final (Page 4)

Topic created on 20th May. 2024 | Page: 4 of 6 | Answers: 89 | Views: 4,783
x****Y

Raffle final

26th May. 2024, at 01:04 pm CEST#46
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Lumbumba22 wrote on May 26, 2024 at 12:34 pm:

Well if you go by the normal Tipkick rules there are either only 2 points or 4 points for draws.

But on gamblejoe Kicktipp it's 3, was put up extra at the time because some complained

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Lumbumba22
Experienced

Raffle final

26th May. 2024, at 01:17 pm CEST#47
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x00NY wrote on May 26, 2024 at 1:04 pm:

But on gamblejoe Kicktipp it's 3, was put up extra at the time because some complained

Oh well ... fair is something else but well, that's just the way it is ... 😅

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Patizi
Elite

Raffle final

26th May. 2024, at 02:56 pm CEST#48
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Lumbumba22 wrote on May 26, 2024 at 1:17 pm:

Oh well ... fair is something else but well, that's just the way it is ... 😅

What's not fair about that. You could have predicted a draw, but the teams still have to play like this.

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Lumbumba22
Experienced

Raffle final

26th May. 2024, at 03:31 pm CEST#49
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Patizi wrote on 26.05.2024 at 14:56:

What's not fair about that. You could have predicted a draw, but the teams still have to play like this.

Because I see the whole thing like Chewi ... but well it's just like that . Rules are rules 😀

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Chewi
Top Member

Raffle final

26th May. 2024, at 04:18 pm CEST#50
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I'm really surprised by this special GambleJoe Kicktipp rule. I didn't know it, I'm not registered.

Read about "Kicktipp Style" and assumed it applied to draws

In the event of a draw, either the correct tendency is awarded 2 points or the correct result is awarded 4 points.

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RedKaos
Top Member

Raffle final

29th May. 2024, at 10:22 am CEST#51
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Liked this post: Avatar von Butterbrezel Butterbrezel, Avatar von Hanshanshans Hanshanshans

Chewi wrote on 26.05.2024 at 16:18: I'm really surprised by this special GambleJoe Kicktipp rule. I didn't know it, I'm not registered there.

Read about "Kicktipp Style" and assumed it applied to draws

In the event of a draw, either the correct tendency is awarded 2 points or the correct result is awarded 4 points.

I don't participate here and I don't know any kick Tip rules, but if Wiesbaden plays 2 to 2 and I bet 1 to 1, I get 2 points for the result and 1 point because I have the difference of 0 correct. And I think that's fair. Imagine someone is first and has scored 15 points, 3 of them several times due to the correct difference, now it's the last game, he gets 0 points and you have predicted 2 to 2 in the game that ends 1 to 1, then you would also like to have the 3 points because the difference between 1 to 1 and 2 to 2 is the same.

Or seen another way, anyone who bets on a draw would be at a disadvantage if the exact result is not known because they could never get 3 points.

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Andre
Expert

Raffle final

29th May. 2024, at 11:41 am CEST#52
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I argued at the time that I would like to reward people who "dare" to bet on a draw. Apart from Butterbrezel, this is certainly the least popular bet

There will be an interim result tomorrow so that everyone knows their chances before the last game

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Xavi22
Expert

Raffle final

29th May. 2024, at 03:26 pm CEST#53
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RedKaos wrote on 29.05.2024 at 10:22 am:

I don't participate here and I don't know any kick Tip rules but if Wiesbaden plays 2 to 2 now and I bet 1 to 1, I get 2 points for the outcome and 1 point because I have the difference of 0 correct. And I think that's fair. Imagine someone is first and has scored 15 points, 3 of them several times due to the correct difference, now it's the last game, he gets 0 points and you have predicted 2 to 2 in the game that ends 1 to 1, then you would also like to have the 3 points because the difference between 1 to 1 and 2 to 2 is the same.

Or seen another way, anyone who bets on a draw would be at a disadvantage if the exact result is not known because they could never get 3 points.

But your argument doesn't quite apply, which is why it is often awarded 2 points. If you bet on a draw, there are 3 possible outcomes, or if you want to be really harsh, 4 possible outcomes: 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 and 3-3. You take one of these so that you have a 25% chance of getting 4 points. If you bet on the home team, for example, you have 6 realistically possible outcomes with 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2. Ergo only 16.67 percent chance of 4 points. The tendency with 3 points cushions this a little, so that you have a 33 percent chance of the correct tendency if you are right with your tip. In the end, it's actually not entirely fair that you always get 3 points with a draw. The conservative rule in this case is much fairer.

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Patizi
Elite

Raffle final

29th May. 2024, at 11:50 pm CEST#54
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Xavi22 wrote on 29.05.2024 at 15:26:
Your reasoning doesn't quite apply though, that's why it's often given 2 points. If you bet on a draw, there are 3 possible outcomes, if you want to be really harsh, 4 possible outcomes. 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 and 3-3. You take one of them, so you have a 25% chance of 4 points. If you bet on the home team, for example, you have 6 realistically possible outcomes with 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2. Ergo only 16.67 percent chance of 4 points. The tendency with 3 points cushions this a little, so that you have a 33 percent chance of the correct tendency if you are right with your tip. In the end, it's actually not entirely fair that you always get 3 points with a draw. The conservative rule in this case is much fairer.

😂😂😂

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Chewi
Top Member

Raffle final

30th May. 2024, at 09:50 am CEST#55
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@Butterbrezel is "unassailably" ahead with 9 points?

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Lumbumba22
Experienced

Raffle final

30th May. 2024, at 11:04 am CEST#56
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Chewi wrote on 30.05.2024 at 09:50: @Butterbrezel is "unassailably" ahead with 9 points?

No, I skimmed it roughly and emeyeste should be ahead with his draws. With 6.

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Butterbrezel
Elite

Raffle final

30th May. 2024, at 11:17 am CEST#57
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Chewi wrote on 30.05.2024 at 09:50: @Butterbrezel is "unassailably" ahead with 9 points?

Nah, I only have 5 points. Emeyesty is ahead with 7 points.

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Emeyesty
Experienced

Raffle final

30th May. 2024, at 12:12 pm CEST#58
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And I actually just thought that the deciding games would be tight and cautious and I couldn't really see any tendency for one team, hence the draws

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Butterbrezel
Elite

Raffle final

30th May. 2024, at 05:41 pm CEST#59
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Liked this post: Avatar von Chewi Chewi, Avatar von Emeyesty Emeyesty, Avatar von Toastbrot Toastbrot
I just felt like evaluating. A lot is still possible before the last game. No guarantee, of course,
because Andre is doing the official evaluation. But I think that's the right way.

I quickly found out the following constellations using Excel:

Real wins with 1:0 / 3:2 / 5:1 or higher

1. Emeyesty with 9 points
2. Nik with 8 points
3. JoshGordon, Mipe, Butterbrezel with 7 points


Real wins with 4:1

1. Emeyesty with 9 points
2. Lumba with 8 points
3. JoshGordon, Nik, MiPe, Butterpretzel with 7 points


Real wins 4:2

1. Emeyesty with 9 points
2. Donnie, JoshGordon, Nik, MiPe, Butterpretzel with 7 points


Real wins with 2:0

1. Emeyesty with 11 points
2. JoshGordon with 9 points
3. MiPe, Butterbrezel, Chewi with 8 points


Real wins with 2:1

1. Emeyesty, Nik with 9 points
2. JoshGordon, MiPe, Butterbrezel, Stromberg, Olymp, slotliebe with 7 points


Real wins with 3:1

1. Emeyesty with 10 points
2. MiPe, Butterbrezel with 9 points


Real - Dortmund - 0:0

1. Patizi with 8 points
2. Emeyesty, MisterL with 7 points


Real - Dortmund - 1:1

1. Patizi with 8 points
2. Emeyesty, Enride with 7 points


Real - Dortmund - 2:2

1. Patizi with 9 points
2. Emeyesty, Jenn-R with 7 points


Real - Dortmund - 3:3

1. Patizi with 8 points
2. Emeyesty with 7 points
3. Jenn-R, MisterL, Enride with 6 points


Real - Dortmund - 0:1

1. Emeyesty with 7 points
2. JoshGordon, Patizi, Nik, MiPe, Butterbrezel, lance with 5 points


Real - Dortmund - 1:2

1. Emeyesty with 7 points
2. Toast, Xavi with 6 points


Real - Dortmund - Dortmund win with other results

1. Emeyesty with 7 points
2. JoshGordon, Patizi, Nik, MiPe, Butterbrezel with 5 points

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MisterL
Expert

Raffle final

30th May. 2024, at 05:53 pm CEST#60
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Liked this post: Avatar von Chewi Chewi
interesting thanks for that

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