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Betting games,... : Organizational group E-H competition final spurt (Page 6)

Topic created on 07th Apr. 2024 | Page: 6 of 9 | Answers: 134 | Views: 5,673
Patizi
Elite

Organizational group E-H competition final spurt

12th Apr. 2024, at 07:01 am CEST#76
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Langhans wrote on 11.04.2024 at 23:07:
I didn't find the Tip so incomprehensible now. Above all, an X at the break was quite conceivable and an X at the end (with some compromises) too. In a way, it was a consensus solution based on our suggestions (some of which I've already forgotten, to be honest ). Ultimately, we would have been fine with Brezel's BTS in combination with the aforementioned home win tendency with X-hedging at €10 each, but everyone is smarter afterwards. Us too

Don't get me wrong, but if you think about it more carefully, it had become clear to you that it would either be the X or both. And since some were convinced that neither would score, only the 0:0 variant can apply. All other draws would have been this "both score". The difference in odds was probably not that awesome between your tip and the both goals.


But for me the game was also an X game. I had actually tried the X at the break. Unfortunately, it didn't happen.

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Xavi22
Expert

Organizational group E-H competition final spurt

12th Apr. 2024, at 09:07 am CEST#77
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Patizi wrote on 11.04.2024 at 21:54:
Sorry but that's so garbage what you guys typed. The game should go X at the break or at the end. But one part doesn't really believe in G-G. Why don't you bet 0:0 straight away?

There is no other option than 0:0 in this constellation.
As soon as 1 goal is scored, which is already the case, you definitely need the G-G. So the options would be 0:0 or the safe G-G.

Or am I seeing this completely wrong?

I understand your reasoning, but you only give arguments for this Tip when it comes to a single tipster. If I'm convinced of an X and don't believe in the GG, then the bet on a 0-0 is certainly the most lucrative. But we are a group of 5 people, where 3 were against GG, while 2 were for it. Our bet was therefore a compromise, which would have covered outcomes such as 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 and so on - both at half-time and at the end.


In the end, we know that GG would have been the better choice. But if we had bet on that, the game would probably have ended 2-0 or even 0-0😅 at the end

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Patizi
Elite

Organizational group E-H competition final spurt

12th Apr. 2024, at 09:17 am CEST#78
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Xavi22 wrote on 12.04.2024 09:07:

Understand your reasoning, but you're only making arguments for this Tip when it comes to a single tipster. If I'm now convinced of an X and don't believe in the GG, then betting on a 0-0 is certainly the most lucrative. But we are a group of 5 people, where 3 were against GG, while 2 were for it. Our bet was therefore a compromise, which would have covered outcomes such as 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 and so on - both at half-time and at the end.


In the end, we know that GG would have been the better choice. But if we had predicted that, the game would probably have ended 2-0 or maybe even 0-0😅 at the end

I just put your two picks against each other. You have the choice between scoring both and X at the break or at the end. The compromise would have been to bet on 0-0. Odds certainly at 7-10 and then cover the G-G. This would have covered all X possibilities + all other outcomes down to 0. I would have done the same if I had been in your group.


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Stromberg
Legend

Organizational group E-H competition final spurt

12th Apr. 2024, at 10:20 am CEST#79
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Group E:

Unfortunately, our Tip was wrong.

I will have to report Excal as inactive to Andre. I always found her (?) very helpful in the forum, so I thought I'd wait until the end to see if anything else comes along. Probably no malicious intent and simply no time at the moment...


You can start thinking about the second leg. What you could bet on and what we want to achieve.
Put the 10 on high risky odds in the 4 range and if we win, everyone gets €10?

Or build up a budget again and continue after the next game?

Personally, I'm in favor of the latter😄

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Langhans_innen
Expert

Organizational group E-H competition final spurt

12th Apr. 2024, at 12:59 pm CEST#80
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Group E: Lille-Aston

Just had a sniff. Just ended up with a home win without any frills at 2.52. Lille are the strongest home team in the league and have to win without ifs and buts. Had expected a maximum of 2.20 - two or three others have 2.45. But it's still early days...

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Schnorbi87
Rookie

Organizational group E-H competition final spurt

12th Apr. 2024, at 03:00 pm CEST#81
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Stromberg wrote on 12.04.2024 at 10:20: Group E:

Unfortunately our Tip was wrong.

I will have to report Excal as inactive to Andre. I always found her (?) very helpful in the forum, so I thought I'd wait until the end to see if anything else comes up. Probably no malicious intent and simply no time at the moment...


You can start thinking about the second leg. What you could bet on and what we want to achieve.
Put the 10 on high risky odds in the 4 range and if we win, everyone gets €10?

Or build up a budget again and continue after the next game?

Personally, I'm in favor of the latter😄


"Build up" means a quota like yesterday, I guess?


So in that case I would be at something like B2S and over 2.5 ....2.1 currently, you could just about double and keep looking in case of success.
But I'm also open to risky things. Have a nice WE!

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Stromberg
Legend

Organizational group E-H competition final spurt

12th Apr. 2024, at 03:41 pm CEST#82
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Langhans wrote on 12.04.2024 at 12:59: Group E: Lille-Aston

Just had a sniff. I just ended up with a home win without frills at 2.52. Lille are the strongest home team in the league, must win without ifs and buts. Would have expected a maximum of 2.20 - two or three others have 2.45. But it's still early days...

You're Group H, scatterbrain... 😉😄

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Langhans_innen
Expert

Organizational group E-H competition final spurt

12th Apr. 2024, at 04:45 pm CEST#83
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Stromberg wrote on 12.04.2024 at 15:41:

You are group H, Schussel-Hans... 😉😄

Oh, sorry. Hans was confused

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kersei
Top Member

Organizational group E-H competition final spurt

12th Apr. 2024, at 07:24 pm CEST#84
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Stromberg wrote on 12.04.2024 at 15:41:

You are group H, Schussel-Hans... 😉😄

Hihi, very funny. I was wondering the same thing.

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Stromberg
Legend

Organizational group E-H competition final spurt

15th Apr. 2024, at 09:19 am CEST#85
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Schnorbi87 wrote on 12.04.2024 at 15:00:

"Build up" means odds like yesterday I think?


So in that case I would be at something like B2S and over 2.5 ....2.1 currently, you could just about double and keep looking in case of success.
But I'm also open to risky things. Have a nice WE!

I find the game really difficult. I wouldn't normally bet at all. Before the first leg I was convinced of AC Milan. Now on the WE again only a 3:3....

I'd probably play your Tip too, hoping for an early goal from Roma to "open" the game a bit...

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Hanshanshans
Elite

Organizational group E-H competition final spurt

15th Apr. 2024, at 10:02 am CEST#86
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Group F...
Thursday we continue with the second leg between West Ham and Leverkusen.
I've already given you my predictions. All In on high odds. Alternatively, we can of course try to get back to around 30 euros and then continue playing with that budget.

It would be great if everyone could post a tendency by tomorrow, then we'll see.

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danny005
Elite

Organizational group E-H competition final spurt

15th Apr. 2024, at 03:50 pm CEST#87
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Hanshanshans wrote on 15.04.2024 at 10:02: Group F...
Thursday we continue with the second leg West Ham - Leverkusen.
I had already given my tendency. All In on high odds. Alternatively, we can of course try to get back to around 30 euros and then continue playing with the budget.

It would be great if everyone could post a tendency by tomorrow, then we'll see.

I'm also in favor of high odds. Doesn't have to be WHU advancing at odds of 8.25. HC win WHU at odds of 7.7 is my recommendation. Leverkusen can progress in extra time for all I care.

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Hanshanshans
Elite

Organizational group E-H competition final spurt

15th Apr. 2024, at 04:07 pm CEST#88
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danny005 wrote on 15.04.2024 at 15:50:
Am also in favor of high odds. Doesn't have to be WHU advancing at odds of 8.25. HC win WHU for odds 7.7 is my recommendation. Leverkusen can then progress in extra time for all I care.

Of course I'm in👍. Winning HC-1 West Ham would be the minimum requirement for advancing anyway. Odds of 7.7, if it works out, are more than enough.

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danny005
Elite

Organizational group E-H competition final spurt

15th Apr. 2024, at 04:11 pm CEST#89
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Hanshanshans wrote on 15.04.2024 at 16:07:

Of course I'm in👍. Winning HC-1 West Ham would be the minimum requirement for advancing anyway. Odds of 7.7, if it works out, are more than sufficient.

That's right. The small odds difference to WHU advancing is not worth the risk. Besides, we'll all be happy if the HC bet goes through and a German team makes it through after all.

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Emeyesty
Experienced

Organizational group E-H competition final spurt

15th Apr. 2024, at 05:14 pm CEST#90
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Langhans wrote on 12.04.2024 at 16:45:

Oh, sorry. Hans was confused

Group H:


since I've privately predicted pretty much everything wrong internationally, I'll hold back a bit. Would always be in favor of goals in the second leg, but don't know how strong the English can really defend 🤷🏻‍♂️

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