The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
9th Dec. 2023, at 09:29 pm CET#243
0 Likes
Nobody has liked this post so far
Matthias wrote on 09.12.2023 at 20:11:
Exactly pretty low, actually almost everyone should get a turn, but it's still a lottery and not a linear distribution
There are some who are luckier this year and others who are less lucky.
But on 01.01.2024 there will be a normal GJ Coin lottery again, so nobody has to be sad.
The calendar is just a bonus
i only calculated something for muschmusch, I didn't complain in any way, sorry if it came across that way! I was already among the winners of this calendar....
Falko wrote on 09.12.2023 at 20:08:
You can also calculate what percentage the probability is of never being in the Advent calendar.
i'm mathematically a little zero but I'll give you a 10 if you manage to calculate it
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
9th Dec. 2023, at 11:26 pm CET#245
0 Likes
Nobody has liked this post so far
Matthias wrote on 09.12.2023 at 20:11:
Exactly pretty low, actually almost everyone should get a turn, but it's still a lottery and not a linear distribution
There are some who are luckier this year and others who are less lucky.
But on 01.01.2024 there will be a normal GJ Coin lottery again, so nobody has to be sad.
The calendar is just a bonus
Can you actually find out how often you have been drawn in the calendar in recent years or is that too much effort? I'd be really interested to know how many times I've been drawn as I'm pretty sure there's never been a day here that I wasn't in the Pot
I'd be really interested in my odds if I'm honest haha
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
10th Dec. 2023, at 08:30 am CET#246
0 Likes
Nobody has liked this post so far
Was only drawn on the 23rd or so last year ... thought it wasn't going to happen. But then I was drawn again ... so don't get upset ... the lottery is fair as far as the drawing is concerned. I've already been in once this year.
I'm still in favor of a small consolation prize for users who have been active here for a long time, are in the lottery Pot every day and haven't even entered
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
10th Dec. 2023, at 03:11 pm CET#252
0 Likes
Nobody has liked this post so far
frapi07 wrote on 10.12.2023 at 14:55:Oh dear... no offense, but ChatGTP is not recommended for something like this.
You can also look for yourself. Result is 0.0004 and at the end it says it's 4%. But 4% is 0.04.
In my opinion, this is correct. To calculate the percentage value here, the 0.0004 (decimal value) is multiplied by 100. This gives you 0.04, which is also 4 percent.
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
10th Dec. 2023, at 03:13 pm CET#253
0 Likes
Nobody has liked this post so far
I hated statistics like the plague, but well... I won't finish the math, but I'll try to explain it.
Since it always depends on how many people qualify, we have to take an average value. It always deviates, that's clear, but there's no other way to calculate it.
Let's assume that an average of 670 people qualify and 40 win. To simplify the example, let's leave out the 2 days where "special qualifications" apply and the normal conditions also apply there. The result won't change much, but I just don't feel like doing an exact calculation. I hate the subject too much for that, sorry
How to calculate something like this is usually explained at school using a dice. What is the probability of rolling a 6 2 times in a row?
On the first roll, it's clear: a die has 6 sides, one side is shown, so 1:6 or 1/6 as a fraction. In the second roll, this probability also applies because the dice is the same, but since you have to fulfill a condition (roll a 6 twice in a row), you cannot add the two probabilities together. You have to multiply them together. 1/6 * 1/6 equals 1/36.
This is roughly how you can calculate the probability here, as a condition must also be fulfilled here (you don't have to be drawn 24 times). So with 40/ 670 you have a 6% chance of being drawn and 94% of not being drawn.
You just have to multiply this 94% btw 0.94 by 24 times. I did it and came up with something like 22% (maybe I calculated too much or too little).
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
10th Dec. 2023, at 03:16 pm CET#254
0 Likes
Nobody has liked this post so far
Hanshanshans wrote on 10.12.2023 at 15:11:
In my opinion, that is correct. To calculate the percentage value here, the 0.0004 (decimal value) is multiplied by 100. This gives you 0.04, which is also 4 percent.
As I said, I hated statistics, but to the best of my knowledge (which may of course be wrong) the probability is a little higher. Maybe I have a logic error, idk and tbh idc xD
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
10th Dec. 2023, at 04:16 pm CET#255
0 Likes
Nobody has liked this post so far
frapi07 wrote on 10/12/2023 at 15:16:Like I said I hated statistics, but to the best of my knowledge (could be wrong of course) the probability is a little higher. Maybe I have a logic error, idk and tbh idc xD
Also did the math with "0.94 24 times with yourself". Also comes to approx. 22%. Approach and calculation makes sense.
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
Nobody has liked this post so far
This post has been translated automatically
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
Nobody has liked this post so far
This post has been translated automatically
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
Nobody has liked this post so far
i only calculated something for muschmusch, I didn't complain in any way, sorry if it came across that way! I was already among the winners of this calendar....
i'm mathematically a little zero but I'll give you a 10 if you manage to calculate it
This post has been translated automatically
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
Nobody has liked this post so far
Was once so free...😉
This post has been translated automatically
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
Nobody has liked this post so far
Can you actually find out how often you have been drawn in the calendar in recent years or is that too much effort? I'd be really interested to know how many times I've been drawn as I'm pretty sure there's never been a day here that I wasn't in the Pot
I'd be really interested in my odds if I'm honest haha
The monthly raffle is really nice and clear
This post has been translated automatically
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
Nobody has liked this post so far
This post has been translated automatically
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
Liked this post: gagapapamama
This post has been translated automatically
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
Nobody has liked this post so far
Ditto unfortunately
This post has been translated automatically
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
Nobody has liked this post so far
not bad Hanshanshans !!! did you google how to calculate it or did you know?
This post has been translated automatically
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
Nobody has liked this post so far
Got a little help from chatgpt 😉
I already figured that the non-winner rate was low, but 4% is of course a great figure. Why can't it be so "difficult" not to win everywhere?
This post has been translated automatically
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
Nobody has liked this post so far
Oh dear... no offense, but ChatGTP is not recommended for something like this.
You can also look for yourself. The result says 0.0004 and at the end it says it's 4%. But 4% is 0.04.
This post has been translated automatically
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
Nobody has liked this post so far
In my opinion, this is correct. To calculate the percentage value here, the 0.0004 (decimal value) is multiplied by 100. This gives you 0.04, which is also 4 percent.
This post has been translated automatically
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
Nobody has liked this post so far
Since it always depends on how many people qualify, we have to take an average value. It always deviates, that's clear, but there's no other way to calculate it.
Let's assume that an average of 670 people qualify and 40 win. To simplify the example, let's leave out the 2 days where "special qualifications" apply and the normal conditions also apply there. The result won't change much, but I just don't feel like doing an exact calculation. I hate the subject too much for that, sorry
How to calculate something like this is usually explained at school using a dice. What is the probability of rolling a 6 2 times in a row?
On the first roll, it's clear: a die has 6 sides, one side is shown, so 1:6 or 1/6 as a fraction. In the second roll, this probability also applies because the dice is the same, but since you have to fulfill a condition (roll a 6 twice in a row), you cannot add the two probabilities together. You have to multiply them together. 1/6 * 1/6 equals 1/36.
This is roughly how you can calculate the probability here, as a condition must also be fulfilled here (you don't have to be drawn 24 times). So with 40/ 670 you have a 6% chance of being drawn and 94% of not being drawn.
You just have to multiply this 94% btw 0.94 by 24 times. I did it and came up with something like 22% (maybe I calculated too much or too little).
This post has been translated automatically
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
Nobody has liked this post so far
As I said, I hated statistics, but to the best of my knowledge (which may of course be wrong) the probability is a little higher. Maybe I have a logic error, idk and tbh idc xD
This post has been translated automatically
The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!
Nobody has liked this post so far
Also did the math with "0.94 24 times with yourself". Also comes to approx. 22%. Approach and calculation makes sense.
However, my or Chatgpt's 4% would be closer to the "final result" from last year...
https://www.gamblejoe.com/forum/regeln-und-hinweise/news-und-hinweise/der-groszlige-gamblejoe-adventskalender-2022-startet-heute-314682/38/#p319389
Not proof, of course. I'm not a mathematician myself. I do deal with math for my job, but this is more about calculating angles, etc.
Maybe we'll pass the question on to Counter.
This post has been translated automatically