Gamblejoe Advent Calendar

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Amateur

Delarion

verified

Forum posts: 105 Member since: 01.08.2019

6th Dec. 2019, at 08:44 pm CET#272

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Matthias wrote on 06/12/2019 at 18:43

Ok maybe I can learn something. Is there something wrong with my following example calculation?

1. Lottery - 10 participants, 5 wins - via random draw - chance of winning is then 50%
2. Lottery - 100 participants, 50 wins - random draw - chance of winning is still 50%
3. Lottery - 200 participants, 50 wins - random drawing - chance of winning is 25%
GJ lottery - 243 participants, 20 wins - random drawing - chance of winning would be 8,2%
GJ lottery Santa Claus: 243 participants, 40 wins - random draw - chance of winning would be 16,5%

Or is there a mistake in thinking?

no, I was just talking about the statement that you have an almost 100% chance to get at least 1 card, because every day of the 24 draws the same chance prevails, the total chance is just as high, the probability is of course something else.

theoretically it would be so, but I calculate with a chance of 1/243 -> 1/223 and not 20:243 so 20 rounds is rolled with always -1 person
unfortunately i don't know exactly how you determine the winners, so i used a formula here, which spits out a rather low chance of winning by rolling 20x 1 win out of 243(-1) person instead of 20 wins out of 243 persons there (with 40 wins the chance is of course twice as high)

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Experienced

Felixrl

Forum posts: 361 Member since: 04.05.2019

Gamblejoe Advent Calendar

6th Dec. 2019, at 08:49 pm CET#273

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Thanks for the PSC and congratulations also to all the other winners

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Top Member

sonne10

Forum posts: 830 Member since: 29.11.2017

Gamblejoe Advent Calendar

6th Dec. 2019, at 08:56 pm CET#274

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Congratulations to all winners 😈😈😈

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Experienced

s00pernanny

Forum posts: 324 Member since: 27.11.2018

Gamblejoe Advent Calendar

6th Dec. 2019, at 08:56 pm CET#275

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Matthias wrote on 06/12/2019 at 18:19: Just so I know, did everyone who didn't win also have it in the info box in the calendar that they participated?

258 participants today, 40 winners, so the chance to win today was at: 15,5%

Since we give away a total of 520 cards in the whole time and I assume that we have about 300 permanent participants, the chance to win at least ONE card should be close to 100%

In my case it says: "on this day a total of 258 GambleJoe members participated in the lottery. Unfortunately, you are not one of the winners in this drawing." Is that what it means or would there have to be some extra info that you participated?

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Elite

Begbie

Forum posts: 2.681 Member since: 11.01.2018

Gamblejoe Advent Calendar

6th Dec. 2019, at 09:05 pm CET#276

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Liked this post: Skitch22

Skitch22 wrote on 06.12.2019 at 19:41: Begbie you win just then tomorrow, I claim now just times that you will win until 24 1 times.

should you be right, you get one of the three PSC lol
for your unbroken belief in the good in people (or in Counters Code ^^).
made a note of it.

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Top Member

Rasmik12

Forum posts: 691 Member since: 26.03.2017

Gamblejoe Advent Calendar

6th Dec. 2019, at 09:10 pm CET#277

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Thank you for the PSC.
Super action.

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Expert

redriver67

Forum posts: 1.103 Member since: 15.02.2017

Gamblejoe Advent Calendar

6th Dec. 2019, at 09:22 pm CET#278

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Liked this post: RiverSong, Stromberg

Thanks to the GJ team for the Psc. Since you should do something good at Christmas time, I will not use them for gambling but donate again. All others who have also won a good luck with it. May Fortuna be with you.

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Expert

Jenn-R

Forum posts: 1.874 Member since: 20.08.2018

Gamblejoe Advent Calendar

6th Dec. 2019, at 09:23 pm CET#279

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Oh nice was also drawn
Yuppa

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Legend

Stromberg

Forum posts: 4.647 Member since: 17.07.2017

Gamblejoe Advent Calendar

6th Dec. 2019, at 09:28 pm CET#280

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In the end, every random system needs x runs to reflect the actual probability. But we can't extend the Advent season to 100 days because of that...🙄

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Legend

RiverSong

Forum posts: 4.210 Member since: 31.10.2017

Gamblejoe Advent Calendar

6th Dec. 2019, at 09:47 pm CET#281

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Stromberg wrote on 06.12.2019 at 21:28: In the end, every random system needs x runs to reflect the actual probability. But we can not therefore extend the Advent season to 100 days...🙄

you could first run these x times as empty runs and then make the draws --> would it then be distributed more fairly?

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