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Off topic & small talk: What's wrong with the market economy?

Topic created on 20th Dec. 2018 | Page: 1 of 2 | Answers: 14 | Views: 2,875
Tropper
Top Member

What's wrong with the market economy?

20th Dec. 2018, at 08:37 am CET#1
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Servus

i have been paying into an ETF for about 6 months, with a 50€ savings plan. Sometimes when the price is low, I hit another 50 or so in my deposit.
My current performance:
Tropper

Yes exactly, -11,43% with an ETF which has 1600 positions worldwide (60% USA).
So, if it continues to run so I make me nen Dispo and pay 300€ to take the favorable rate.
The price has never been at 50, I am -I think at least- entered at 52USD and that was once at 58. Now meanwhile by the shitty negative news (trade war between USA and China, Huawei, Elon Musk with his Hyperloop disaster (only 60 kmh driven instead of 300kmh) etc. many withdraw or let it pay out and reinvest.
Soon comes Brexit, that can also be cheerful.

To the people who make out with shares and ETF also bissl, how do you assess the situation?

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Anonym

What's wrong with the market economy?

20th Dec. 2018, at 08:55 am CET#2
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Why do you have one in USD and not Euro?

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Tropper
Top Member

What's wrong with the market economy?

20th Dec. 2018, at 09:13 am CET#3
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Zockertyp89 wrote on 20/12/2018 at 08:55: Why do you have one in USD and not Euro?

My professor in investment behavior told me it would be better because of the security.
On top of that he said he would take USD because:

The USD the exchange rate is more stable than the Euro if you look at it over many years. How long has the USD been around and how long has the Euro been around?
Within 100 years (1900 until today) there were in Germany, Reichmark, DDR Mark, Deutsche Mark, Euro (did I forget something) ?
already in the 17th JHR there was already the USD, that's why he said it is safer.

Probably in the future there will still be the USD, in Europe some are talking about abolishing the Eur again.
No idea how it behaves then, if the EUR is exchanged again to the DM for example

My portfolio is geared to a long investment horizon, it is to secure my pension more or less, so I need currency security and will not pay out anything anyway but I do "Buy and Hold".
Of course there are again arguments for the Euro instead of USD, stock market is just "professional" gambling (lol). Nothing else than spending your money in the casino. But you are a bit safer with an ETF.

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WinMuel
Rookie

What's wrong with the market economy?

20th Dec. 2018, at 09:38 am CET#4
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Well, with buy and hold and the anal horizon you describe yourself, you should stop looking at the chart every minute. Secondly, it is always the worst possible idea to "trade" with a discount...which firstly reduces your win extremely, secondly it becomes even more expensive due to income taxes.

off-topic: Regarding Musk's Hyperloop...whoever invests there is to blame and has no idea of physics and absolutely no idea of mathematics and should therefore refrain from investing completely. The payout ratio or the expected value is higher in an online casino...

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Anonym

What's wrong with the market economy?

20th Dec. 2018, at 10:08 am CET#5
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the dax has lost around 20% this year. i think there is still room for improvement.
otherwise, I can't see much difference between this and online casinos.

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Tropper
Top Member

What's wrong with the market economy?

20th Dec. 2018, at 10:26 am CET#6
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WinMuel wrote on 20.12.2018 at 09:38: Well with buy and hold and the analgehorizont you describe yourself you should stop every minute to squint at the chart. Secondly, it is always the worst possible idea to "trade" with dispo...which firstly reduces your win extremely, secondly it becomes even more expensive due to income taxes.

off-topic: Regarding Musk's Hyperloop...whoever invests there is to blame and has no idea of physics and absolutely no idea of mathematics and should therefore refrain from investing completely. The payout ratio, or the expectationqert is higher in nem online casino...

I say so, I just find it interesting what is going on and I just want to "share" with you. I think I'm not the only one who invests in securities or stocks.

Let's say the price goes down to 40 usd and I have a minus return of 26% or so, then I think it is a sensible investment if I take 200€ dispo

The 7% overdraft or so (DKB) says that (if I don't pay it off early) I would be due 7€ in interest.
If the upswing comes from the ETF, it could be that the 200€ I invested then, eventually (I calculate 26%) 52€ return.
Summa Sumarum, it is already worthwhile.

This income tax (final withholding tax?) you say, for this you have to give an exemption order, I have given here 802€. (maximum rate of a single person)
Until I exceed this, can come with my depot still 2, 0s in addition ^^.

Update: I think that topic with income taxes with it you meant something else than I thought. If it is so, sorry.
ETF is something different than shares, who invests his money in Apple (1 share) he can win or lose something (Apple has lost a lot of market value) but that Apple goes insolvent and the share is at 0, I hardly believe. At Online Casinos you either win or your bankroll is at 0

With OC's you can never save for your retirement, you gamble away, with stocks people have been really rich if they speculate properly.

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WinMuel
Rookie

What's wrong with the market economy?

20th Dec. 2018, at 11:17 am CET#7
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Haha, can I ask how old you are?

So honestly...you always assume " If the upswing comes from the ETF, it could be... ". Wrong approach! Run all scenarios and calculate expected value...easy!

ETFs may be "safer" than individual stocks...but let's face it. I work in the industry and have seen a thousand people come and go. From embezzled funds to bankruptcies that were deliberately caused. You are the small player at the bottom of the food chain and the last in the information chain. Everyone is happy when you "invest", the bank/broker for the transaction costs alone

For people like you and me, the stock market is just like Roulette, some think they can tear with strategies and chart technique what...while insiders and board members on this stupidity one w*chsen.

".. but that Apple goes insolvent and the stock is at 0, I hardly believe" ...yes you do. Just as almost everyone believed in the case of giant furniture companies (Steinhoff) --> balance sheet fraud, etc.. From 6€ to 9ct. although there are assets without end which are in my opinion far above the current market valuation. But who shifted what back and forth will never be revealed.

I do not want to take away your courage now, just share my opinion.

Why can't you save for a pension with OCs? Calculation question or operate your own...

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Latino
Experienced

What's wrong with the market economy?

20th Dec. 2018, at 12:06 pm CET#8
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In my experience, the effort is not worth it if you do not invest the appropriate capital. In addition, there is the research that requires a lot of expertise to be able to assess whether a paper is worth the Risk of the purchase, another point is the experience to be able to assess the reactions of a market and here comes the like of WinMuel to bear: You are the last in the information chain. With the ETF you avoid this effort, but of course you lose yield and also an ETF can be driven roughly against the wall

In addition, in this area extremely numbers are "bent" and thrown around with technical terms to make Otto-normal consumer an investment strategy palatable - but in the end you want only one thing: your money

Your strategy requires a very long period of time to achieve your goal, let's take 10 years - but what is the Deposit and the return still worth? Adjusted for inflation, you should hardly make a significant profit, except as mentioned above if you invest several thousand.

28% return within a year would be for me already a sign that with me all alarm bells go on - 28% in 5 years is then again what else - inflation-adjusted then about 3% per year where you have to ask yourself again whether it carries the risk even if it is relatively small with ETFs.

However, this represents only my experience with various forms of investment

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Slothot
Amateur

What's wrong with the market economy?

20th Dec. 2018, at 12:26 pm CET#9
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I would continue in the same way. Do not use any money from the overdraft facility, but keep the savings plan running
I invest 500 euros a month in the MSCI World, the Stoxx Europe 600 and the emerging markets

In addition, I also held individual shares of Visa and Apple which I sold in July. I am currently waiting with Cash3am Rand for good entry opportunities. The etfl23 I still have on the watchlist

I would consider whether you can not increase the savings performance by 50%?

I've been in the stock market since 2011 and can't confirm all the written up there, whatever those people are
My return is almost 100% in 7 years. f**k the capital gains tax 😉

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WinMuel
Rookie

What's wrong with the market economy?

20th Dec. 2018, at 12:36 pm CET#10
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Where one wins, one must lose...no one said you can't win. You were lucky and diversified a bit, so your portfolio is not hit quite as hard by setbacks.

In any case, it is important to save every month, anyone who has understood compound interest will understand that. It is also important to take it into your own hands and not leave it to some weird savings plan Insurance broker whose commission already ruins 30% of your return.

Basically, the math is superior everywhere and still the same: On the Risk-free interest --> Per yield unit, one risk unit.

That is also the reason why e.g. with Crowdfundig subordinated loans everyone should become suspicious who sees 8% yield


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