I do not understand the meaning of the first question in his letter directly:
The basic assumption from previous experience is that 5% of those who test positive suffer a severe course.
Now I can take the 5% as a basis for extrapolations. That would be 5 people out of 100 tested positive.
Of these 100, perhaps only 50% develop symptoms and would be considered to have the disease according to the definition. Nevertheless, according to the basic assumption, it is 5% of the positively tested, so still 5 people out of 100.
The only difference is that of the group of people defined as having the disease, 10% would be used for the extrapolations. The result would be the same.
It would only make a difference if it was a question of whether the 5% were calculated from all those who tested positive or from all those who were ill according to the definition. But there the statement is clear, from all positive tested.
Or am I making a mistake in my thinking? 😂🤔
I have now taken the 50 percent out of the air, because it is easy to calculate. But the principle is the same.
I would also find random tests interesting and would volunteer to do them😁But they are already testing at the limit, and the resources required are currently scarce as far as I know. Presumably one therefore prefers to test specific suspected cases, so that they do not continue to run around in the area.
I am curious about the study that is to come. So seriously now!
gamble1 wrote on 30.03.2020 at 18:54 clock: Who you can now currently believe is hard to say I think it's not quite as bad as some make it out but also not as safe as others do again
ruhrpott wrote on 27.02.2020 at 01:03: I don't really give it a thought. If it gets me, that's the way it is, and can't be helped anyway. I deal with so many people on a daily basis, if I worried about it all the time, I'd go stupid. I also believe that it won't be long before the first case in the Ruhr area becomes public, and from then on it can happen quickly, especially here in the Ruhr area, since many people commute from town to town every day. But as I said, I continue to live as always and do not really think about it.
In our country, at least, no one abides by any restrictions, and I also believe that our police no longer have the will to bend a finger for incompetent politicians.
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^^
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Yes well ...... ... .
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https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/panorama/coronavirus-faktencheck-bhakdi-100.html
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The basic assumption from previous experience is that 5% of those who test positive suffer a severe course.
Now I can take the 5% as a basis for extrapolations. That would be 5 people out of 100 tested positive.
Of these 100, perhaps only 50% develop symptoms and would be considered to have the disease according to the definition. Nevertheless, according to the basic assumption, it is 5% of the positively tested, so still 5 people out of 100.
The only difference is that of the group of people defined as having the disease, 10% would be used for the extrapolations. The result would be the same.
It would only make a difference if it was a question of whether the 5% were calculated from all those who tested positive or from all those who were ill according to the definition. But there the statement is clear, from all positive tested.
Or am I making a mistake in my thinking? 😂🤔
I have now taken the 50 percent out of the air, because it is easy to calculate. But the principle is the same.
I would also find random tests interesting and would volunteer to do them😁But they are already testing at the limit, and the resources required are currently scarce as far as I know. Presumably one therefore prefers to test specific suspected cases, so that they do not continue to run around in the area.
I am curious about the study that is to come. So seriously now!
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Liked this post: Herr_D, Stromberg
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I think it could be good!
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Nix more
Only corona
Edit: removed empty quote
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